Monthly Preliminary
Report |
MPR |
Kjell Inge
Malde, Director/Editor |
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Web: |
http://www.cv-helios.net |
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Hunsteinstien
42A, N-4083 Hundvaag NORWAY |
Email: |
cvhelios@gmail.com |
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Volume 43 Number 10 MPR no. 507 October 2023 ISSN 2535-3780 |
CV-Helios Network |
Monthly Preliminary Report for October 2023 |
Solar Cycle 25: Month no. 47 |
Report id.: cv2310 - CV-report no.: 507 |
Memno. |
Name |
Country |
CV |
Obs |
K |
Obs. Tot. |
CV-001 |
KJELL INGE
MALDE |
NORWAY |
70,3 |
16 |
0,987 |
9308 |
CV-010 |
FRANKY DUBOIS |
BELGIUM |
61,1 |
20 |
0,860 |
9701 |
CV-019 |
ELMAR JUNKER |
GERMANY |
152,3 |
8 |
1,510 |
3854 |
CV-023 |
HARTMUT
BRETSCHNEIDER |
GERMANY |
44,9 |
22 |
0,656 |
5934 |
CV-040 |
ROBERTO
BATTAIOLA |
ITALY |
50,0 |
4 |
0,874 |
2141 |
CV-068 |
SVEN OVE THIMM |
DENMARK |
58,8 |
12 |
0,713 |
4299 |
CV-077 |
ANDREW JOHNSTON |
UNITED KINGDOM |
49,5 |
11 |
0,637 |
3689 |
CV-080 |
JAN JANSSENS |
BELGIUM |
63,0 |
1 |
0,640 |
1227 |
CV-082 |
PIOTR URBANSKI |
POLAND |
78,6 |
17 |
1,017 |
5556 |
CV-086 |
TOS POLAND |
POLAND |
72,2 |
27 |
0,996 |
8723 |
CV-091 |
GRZEGORZ DALEK |
POLAND |
72,6 |
18 |
1,114 |
4774 |
CV-102 |
PAULO ROBERTO
MOSER |
BRAZIL |
53,0 |
25 |
0,816 |
3102 |
CV-105 |
ALEXEY RYBACK |
RUSSIA |
57,5 |
6 |
0,972 |
3498 |
CV-122 |
VLASTISLAV FEIK |
CZECH REPUBLIC |
68,1 |
11 |
0,978 |
3197 |
CV-135 |
GEMA ARAUJO |
SPAIN |
85,0 |
30 |
1,459 |
7530 |
CV-136 |
FAUSTINO GARCIA |
SPAIN |
58,2 |
14 |
0,731 |
3996 |
CV-139 |
JAVIER ALONSO |
SPAIN |
77,8 |
13 |
1,070 |
4142 |
CV-151 |
JEFFREY CARELS |
BELGIUM |
51,0 |
20 |
0,797 |
3266 |
CV-171 |
WALTER JOSE
MALUF |
BRAZIL |
96,0 |
20 |
1,793 |
3030 |
CV-181 |
ADAM
DERDZIKOWSKI |
POLAND |
52,3 |
3 |
0,664 |
1203 |
CV-198 |
DENIS WALLIAN |
FRANCE |
128,0 |
5 |
1,263 |
633 |
CV-204 |
STEFAN MEISTER |
SWITZERLAND |
62,5 |
10 |
0,845 |
825 |
CV-206 |
TADEUSZ FIGIEL |
POLAND |
82,6 |
5 |
0,944 |
366 |
CV-207 |
ONDREJOV OBS.
(AI CAS) |
CZECH REPUBLIC |
78,6 |
18 |
1,088 |
3826 |
CV-208 |
JOHAN NEYS |
BELGIUM |
86,4 |
5 |
0,999 |
775 |
CV-214 |
IGOR GRAGEDA
MENDEZ |
BOLIVIA |
64,5 |
26 |
0,900 |
1317 |
CV-215 |
ARNAUD MENGUS |
FRANCE |
78,3 |
6 |
0,984 |
361 |
CV-219 |
KANDILLI
OBSERVATORY |
TURKEY |
60,8 |
25 |
0,953 |
987 |
CV-222 |
MILENA NIEMCZYK |
POLAND |
81,0 |
11 |
0,878 |
83 |
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Totals |
Observers |
Days |
CV |
No |
K |
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29 |
31 |
72,24 |
409 |
0,970 |
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Results |
Date |
CV |
Obsrvrs |
Regions
6 rot. |
CV-USAF
6-rot.
6 rot. |
CV-6 rot. |
CV-13 rot. |
1 |
123,26 |
18 |
7,81 |
121,52 |
121,92 |
109,37 |
2 |
113,50 |
17 |
7,82 |
121,69 |
122,09 |
109,46 |
3 |
112,73 |
14 |
7,84 |
121,85 |
122,31 |
109,57 |
4 |
98,44 |
17 |
7,85 |
122,06 |
122,45 |
109,74 |
5 |
88,79 |
14 |
7,87 |
122,18 |
122,60 |
109,94 |
6 |
94,59 |
16 |
7,90 |
122,38 |
122,82 |
110,17 |
7 |
82,67 |
12 |
7,91 |
122,39 |
122,89 |
110,29 |
8 |
90,18 |
16 |
7,93 |
122,38 |
122,88 |
110,55 |
9 |
95,83 |
12 |
7,94 |
122,28 |
122,89 |
110,74 |
10 |
95,94 |
16 |
7,96 |
122,34 |
122,85 |
111,00 |
11 |
123,57 |
14 |
7,98 |
122,72 |
123,15 |
111,26 |
12 |
110,40 |
9 |
8,00 |
122,49 |
123,31 |
111,48 |
13 |
93,73 |
10 |
7,98 |
121,78 |
123,20 |
111,70 |
14 |
79,00 |
12 |
7,98 |
121,03 |
122,72 |
111,79 |
15 |
74,00 |
16 |
7,96 |
120,31 |
122,25 |
111,93 |
16 |
61,00 |
17 |
7,98 |
119,62 |
121,83 |
111,93 |
17 |
46,56 |
15 |
7,96 |
118,85 |
121,42 |
111,86 |
18 |
38,60 |
14 |
7,95 |
118,10 |
121,03 |
111,83 |
19 |
41,64 |
11 |
7,94 |
117,48 |
120,75 |
111,78 |
20 |
49,00 |
7 |
7,88 |
116,56 |
120,46 |
111,91 |
21 |
34,20 |
10 |
7,87 |
115,85 |
120,10 |
111,95 |
22 |
22,07 |
14 |
7,84 |
114,97 |
119,57 |
111,88 |
23 |
14,64 |
11 |
7,79 |
114,38 |
119,16 |
111,81 |
24 |
19,38 |
13 |
7,76 |
113,86 |
118,91 |
111,75 |
25 |
24,25 |
12 |
7,73 |
113,59 |
118,74 |
111,63 |
26 |
27,22 |
9 |
7,72 |
113,37 |
118,68 |
111,58 |
27 |
14,40 |
10 |
7,71 |
113,21 |
118,72 |
111,55 |
28 |
16,89 |
9 |
7,70 |
112,74 |
118,66 |
111,48 |
29 |
26,54 |
13 |
7,67 |
112,26 |
118,33 |
111,40 |
30 |
55,60 |
10 |
7,63 |
111,77 |
118,02 |
111,45 |
31 |
68,80 |
10 |
7,62 |
111,21 |
117,71 |
111,56 |
Totals/ |
3,96 |
27,3 |
0,97 |
4,83 |
121,05 |
111,17 |
Avrgs |
CV and
CV observers |
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CV-13
rot. per Oct 2023 |
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Latest sunspot
regions developments |
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Reg.-First-Last-Lat.-Long.-Rot.-Area-Lgth.-CV-
max. |
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3131,24.10.22,27.10.22,05.11.22,23,111,2263,190,CSO,11 |
Region,First
date,Max.date,Last date,Lat.,Long.,Rot.,Max.mvh,Max class,Max CV |
3133,25.10.22,28.10.22,31.10.22,26,94,2263,140,DAO,19 |
3116,03.10.22,10.10.22,14.10.22,30,45,2262,210,DAO,19 |
3135,28.10.22,31.10.22,09.11.22,26,63,2263,190,EAO,20 |
3119,07.10.22,10.10.22,17.10.22,28,11,2262,180,DAI,22 |
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3124,16.10.22,18.10.22,19.10.22,-35,328,2263,180,DSO,25 |
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3126,19.10.22,25.10.22,27.10.22,-10,232,2263,160,DAI,22 |
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:Product:
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts |
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Highlights of
Solar and Geomagnetic Activity |
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06 - 12
November 2023 |
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http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/weekly.txt |
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Solar activity
ranged from low to moderate levels. Low levels were |
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observed on
06-10 Nov and again on 12 Nov. Moderate levels |
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(R1/Minor)
were observed on 11 Nov due to an isolated M1.2/Sf flare |
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at 11/1729 UTC
from Region 3477 (S15, L=227, class/area Cko/350 on |
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05 Nov). Other
activity included an eruption centered near S15W15 |
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around 09/1115
UTC. An associated CME was first observed in |
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SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery at 09/1148 UTC as an asymmetric halo. |
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Modelling of
the CME had an arrival around 11/2000 UTC. Another CME |
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was associated
with an eruption near Region 3484 (S15, L=215, |
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class/area
Cai/080 on 12 Nov) occurring at 10/1900 UTC. The |
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associated CME
was observed off the WSW limb beginning at 10/2000 |
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UTC. Modelling
of the CME suggested a possible grazing influence |
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late on 15
Nov. |
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Progress Solar
Cycle no. 25 |
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The above graphic show
CV-Int. levels solar cycle 25 compared to same stage previous cycles
21-24.
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Highlights
October 2023 |
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The solar
activity in October 2023 has come to a great pause, though |
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the solar
activity is rising slowly and many regions have been of very modest sizes. |
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The 6 rot.
average was setback about 3,5 months to 114,8 by end October, |
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but the 13 rot.
average was only setback about 4 weeks to 110,9 by last month end. |
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Report-end this
MPR 507 for October show we are now about 18 CV-units below cycle 23! |
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A total of 713
regions this cycle per end October 2023 (353 regions North and 360 regions
South). |
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At the same
time solar cycle 24 produced 561 regions .(230 north and 331 south). |
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Predictions
may indicate an upward trend for December and especially January 2024. |
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Situation
nowadays with low activity sure would need a good uplift now! |
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Region,First
date,Max.date,Last date,Lat.,Long.,Rot.,Max.mvh,Max class,Max CV |
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3116,03.10.22,10.10.22,14.10.22,30,45,2262,210,DAO,19 |
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3119,07.10.22,10.10.22,17.10.22,28,11,2262,180,DAI,22 |
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3124,16.10.22,18.10.22,19.10.22,-35,328,2263,180,DSO,25 |
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3126,19.10.22,25.10.22,27.10.22,-10,232,2263,160,DAI,22 |
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3131,24.10.22,27.10.22,05.11.22,23,111,2263,190,CSO,11 |
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3133,25.10.22,28.10.22,31.10.22,26,94,2263,140,DAO,19 |
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3135,28.10.22,31.10.22,09.11.22,26,63,2263,190,EAO,20 |
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3450,27.09.23,02.10.23,07.10.23,-19,331,2276,220,EAC,32 |
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We expect a
major upgoing of CV-I totals later on this year. |
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3452,01.10.23,02.10.23,11.10.23,10,304,2276,240,DAI,22 |
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3460,07.10.23,10.10.23,16.10.23,-10,233,2276,140,DAI,22 |
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3465,11.10.23,15.10.23,19.10.23,10,146,2276,240,HAX,7 |
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3468,16.10.23,17.10.23,26.10.23,-10,81,2276,130,HAX,7 |
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It now seems that prediction mix of 6 and 13 rotation
averages may indicate maximum 14.08.2025 (+/- 2 rot.) |
as a time of
maximum for the CV-I (but still, may be one rotation later). Updates will
come. |
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We reckon there
have passed 1426 days of the new cycle by this issue. |
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We may see a continued production of smaller regions for a
while but by the end of year expect more active periods! |
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Solar Flux
onset: OCCURED 30 September 2022. Stay
tuned and observe the solar disk from now on! |
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Please remember
you are always welcome to contribute with drawings and photos! |
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TAKE A SURVEY: |
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Here is a
Survey of hmiigr SOHO solar images 2022. |
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https://www.cv-helios.net/helios/cv/web/2022/Video2022.mov |
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Pictures from
last month - Observer contributions, etc. |
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Photo courtesy: Thanks to CV-135 Gema Araujo, Spain |
Highlights October 2023 |
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Thank you, Gema Araujo, for giving us access
to your large collection of solar images |
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Left: Photo from CV-135 Gema Araujo, Spain |
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from 11 October 2023. |
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Picture below in H-alpha |
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