CV-Helios Network

Monthly Preliminary Report

MPR

 

Kjell Inge Malde, Director/Editor

Web:

http://www.cv-helios.net

 

 

Böreholen 20, N-4085 Hundvaag NORWAY

Email: cvhelios@gmail.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Volume 40 Number 1

MPR no. 462

January 2020

ISSN 2535-3780

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-Helios Network

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monthly Preliminary Report for January 2020

 

 

 

 

 

Solar Cycle 24: Month no. 135

 

 

 

 

Report id.: cv2001 -

CV-report no.: 462

 

 

 

Memno.

Name

Country

CV

Obs

K

Obs. Tot.

 

CV-001

MALDE, KJELL INGE

NORWAY

1,3

13

0,475

8399

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-009

BRAUCKHOFF, DIETER

GERMANY

2,7

22

0,991

1191

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-010

DUBOIS, FRANKY

BELGIUM

2,5

17

0,919

8593

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-019

JUNKER, ELMAR

GERMANY

4,4

12

1,605

3398

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-021

BARNES, HOWARD

NEW ZEALAND

3,9

14

1,402

4299

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-022

VIERTEL, ANDREAS

GERMANY

1,0

8

0,363

5566

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-023

BRETSCHNEIDER, HART

GERMANY

2,7

20

0,981

4975

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-038

MORALES, GERMAN

BOLIVIA

6,0

26

2,181

7052

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-040

BATTAIOLA, ROBERTO

ITALY

3,8

6

1,393

1776

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-041

ROTHERMEL, JENS

GERMANY

0,0

4

0,000

1073

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-044

SCHRÖDER, GERD

GERMANY

1,6

20

0,581

4298

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-068

THIMM, SVEN OVE

DENMARK

1,4

5

0,509

3593

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-077

JOHNSTON, ANDREW

UNITED KINGDOM

1,8

14

0,649

2940

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-080

JANSSENS, JAN

BELGIUM

0,0

1

0,000

1021

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-082

URBANSKI, PIOTR

POLAND

1,8

13

0,643

4664

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-086

TOS-POLAND

POLAND

4,1

31

1,501

7387

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-091

DALEK, GRZEGORZ

POLAND

1,1

13

0,391

4042

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-103

STEEN, OCTAAF

BELGIUM

3,3

19

1,205

5206

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-105

RYBACK, ALEXEY

RUSSIA

7,0

3

2,544

2907

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-107

LEVENTHAL, MONTY

AUSTRALIA

5,0

12

1,817

4225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-122

FEIK, VLASTISLAV

CZECH REPUBLIC

2,6

15

0,945

2448

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-135

ARAUJO, GEMA

SPAIN

3,2

30

1,175

6190

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-136

GARCÍA, FAUSTINO

SPAIN

0,8

15

0,291

3239

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-139

ALONSO, JAVIER

SPAIN

4,3

16

1,567

3350

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-151

CARELS, JEFFREY

BELGIUM

2,3

13

0,839

2549

Page 1 of 10

CV-Helios Network

Volume 40 Number 1

MPR no. 462

January 2020

ISSN 2535-3780

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Memno.

Name

Country

CV

Obs

K

Obs. Tot.

CV-171

MALUF, WALTER JOSE

BRAZIL

4,3

21

1,575

2070

CV-177

BACKER, HENDRIK DE

BELGIUM

2,4

18

0,888

1508

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-181

DERDZIKOWSKI, ADAM

POLAND

3,0

1

1,090

884

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-190

VERBOVEN, RUBEN

BELGIUM

1,2

6

0,424

212

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-201

BASU, SANTANU

INDIA

0,0

22

0,000

401

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-203

DEMEULENAERE, IVO

BELGIUM

0,6

9

0,202

434

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-204

MEISTER, STEFAN

SWITZERLAND

2,0

1

0,727

272

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-207

ONDREJOV OBS. (AI CA

CZECH REPUBLIC

0,7

13

0,252

5020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-208

NEYS, JOHAN

BELGIUM

5,5

4

1,999

255

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-209

MORAES, CAIO CRESPO

BRAZIL

0,5

2

0,182

513

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-210

BOURGEOIS, JEAN

BELGIUM

1,6

8

0,591

430

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-211

CEUNINCK, EDWIN DE

BELGIUM

1,8

12

0,666

326

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-212

ZAPATA MORALES, ANT

SPAIN

0,5

2

0,182

215

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-213

LAURENT, DIRK

BELGIUM

4,4

7

1,609

170

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-214

GRAGEDA, IGOR

BOLIVIA

2,4

21

0,865

140

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Totals

Observers

Days

CV

No

K

 

40

31

2,49

509

0,905

 

 

 

Page 2 of 10

CV-Helios Network

Volume 40 Number 1

MPR no. 462

January 2020

ISSN 2535-3780

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Results

*CV-USAF prepared via data from

 

Prelim.

 

 

 

Joint USDC/NOAA, SWPC/USAF

 

MIN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

CV

Obsrvrs

Regions

* CV-USAF

CV-6 rot.

CV-13 rot.

6 rot.

6 rot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1,00

18

0,08

0,17

0,15

3,95

 

2

2,80

15

0,08

0,18

0,15

3,95

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

3,91

11

0,09

0,19

0,17

3,96

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

2,45

20

0,09

0,20

0,18

3,97

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5

3,21

14

0,10

0,20

0,20

3,97

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

0,94

18

0,10

0,21

0,20

3,97

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7

0,21

14

0,10

0,21

0,20

3,97

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

1,20

10

0,10

0,21

0,21

3,98

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9

5,63

8

0,11

0,24

0,22

3,99

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

1,00

18

0,12

0,24

0,23

3,99

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11

0,00

19

0,12

0,24

0,23

3,98

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12

0,00

26

0,12

0,24

0,23

3,95

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13

0,00

17

0,12

0,24

0,23

3,93

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14

0,00

14

0,12

0,24

0,23

3,91

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15

0,00

23

0,12

0,24

0,23

3,87

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

16

0,00

22

0,11

0,23

0,23

3,83

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

17

0,00

18

0,10

0,23

0,22

3,79

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18

0,05

22

0,10

0,23

0,22

3,76

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19

0,09

22

0,10

0,23

0,22

3,75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20

0,15

13

0,10

0,23

0,22

3,75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

21

0,00

20

0,10

0,23

0,22

3,75

 

22

0,00

13

0,10

0,23

0,22

3,75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

23

0,00

16

0,10

0,23

0,23

3,75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

24

2,87

15

0,11

0,24

0,24

3,75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

25

11,89

9

0,12

0,25

0,28

3,77

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

26

16,94

17

0,12

0,30

0,37

3,81

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

27

10,00

12

0,13

0,37

0,41

3,82

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

28

11,81

16

0,13

0,43

0,47

3,85

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

29

8,81

21

0,14

0,49

0,53

3,87

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

30

8,43

14

0,15

0,55

0,57

3,89

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

31

3,00

14

0,15

0,55

0,58

3,90

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Totals/

3,11

16,4

0,87

2,13

0,27

3,88

 

Avrgs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Page 3 of 10

CV-Helios Network

Volume 40 Number 1

MPR no. 462

January 2020

ISSN 2535-3780

CV and CV observers

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV for January 2020 Observers in January 2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-13 rot. per January 2020

5

4

3

2

1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

Page 4 of 10

CV-Helios Network

Volume 40 Number 1

MPR no. 462

January 2020

ISSN 2535-3780

Solar Region Summary for January 2020

Reg.-First day-Last day-Lat.-Lon.-Rot.-Area-Lgth.-CVtot.-class14d

2755-02.01.20-06.01.20-S35-353-2225-20-3-1,4-BXO-BXO-AXX-AXX-AXX 2756-09.01.20-10.01.20-N22-17-2226-30-4-3,0-CRO-AXX

2757-24.01.20-01.02.20-N04-85-2226-10-3-6,4-BXO-BXO-CAO-CSO-HSX-HSX-HSX-HRX-AXX

---------

---------

---------

---------

---------

---------

---------

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2020 Feb 10 0203 UTC

#Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

#Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

#https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 February 2020

Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was between normal to high levels. High levels were reached on 08-09 Feb in response to a negative polarity CH HSS. Normal to moderate levels were observed for the remainder of the summary period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels were observed on 06-07 Feb in response to the onset of

a negative polarity CH HSS, with wind speeds reaching a max near 650 km/s on 07 Feb. As wind speeds declined, unsettled conditions were observed on 08-09 Feb. Another isolated period of unsettled was observed on 04 Feb in response to sustained southward Bz. The

Page 5 of 10

CV-Helios Network

 

Volume 40 Number 1

MPR no. 462

January 2020

ISSN 2535-3780

 

 

 

 

 

 

CV-I vs CV-USAF graph

 

Solar minimum approaching

 

Zürich/McIntosh-class AXX number registrations, 1-cycle totals

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

1977

1978

1979

1980

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

MOST COMMON: Lowest class, AXX (CV=1) is the most common class of all times.

Result from 16699 registrations of type AXX class Zurich/McIntosh, 1977-2019.

Awards this month

0

New member:

We are now 47 active members (last 12 mo.)

Please check out www.cv-helios.net/cvrep2.html for updates of files!

MINIMUM Cycle 24/25 was expected to occur between November 2019/May 2020.

Latest: MINIMUM MAY HAVE OCCURRED END DEC. 2019. See page 10 for more.

Page 6 of 10

CV-Helios Network

Volume 40 Number 1

MPR no. 462

January 2020

ISSN 2535-3780

January 2020 news

Reg. 2757 N04 85 left - and right close up (rot. 2225)

Both belonging to old cycle 24

In January 2020 there were 3 regions

Small region 2755 (S35) lasted for 5 days

Small region 2756 (N22) lasted for 2 days

Sun was blank for 16 days

A preliminary low on Adj. Solar Flux on 2019 Dec 22 & 2020 Jan 06. More news later.

Solar Coordinates

Daily list of Solar Ephemeris for 2020 available at:

Daily list of Solar Ephemeris for 2020

Here you can see Today's Po, Bo, Lo, Rotation no., RA and Dec. for the year 2020.

Calculating CV

For your convenience and security, use the mif2002,

https://www.cv-helios.net/mif2002.xls

the Monthly Input Form, which you can use for all of your next reportings!

Monitor MPR daily progress

CV-Helios Network: Monitor MPR progress as entries are made!

Monitor your submissions as they are registered:

https://cv-helios.net/helios/cv/web/mprpost.html

The data are available fresh from about 10:00 UTC until local midnight. Content comprises CV-Report for latest month, CV-Report for latest month individual results, Extracts from NOAA on forecasts/discussion,

Extracts from NOAA warehouse on SRS and other activity, Last 24 months CV-data, This month CV acc. to USAF

Registration data

Check if your CV-observations have been registered:

 

https://www.cv-helios.net/cgi/data/datlist.txt

for checking of Entries Summary

 

 

CONTRIBUTE WITH YOUR PHOTOS AND OTHER OF INTEREST!

We would like YOU to contribute with drawings or photos from last month

Also any other contribution that may have an interest for our observers.

Please send by email to:

cvhelios@gmail.com

Page 7 of 10

CV-Helios Network

Volume 40 Number 1

MPR no. 462

January 2020

ISSN 2535-3780

SUBMISSIONS OF CV-OBSERVATIONS

Please go to: https://www.cv-helios.net/observations/index.html

Log on to:

https://www.cv-helios.net/observations/index.html

loginsolaris

passwordcvheliosobs

Submission before 15th of proceeding month 18:00 UTC.

MPR issue 15th of month 2000 UTC. Good luck CV-observing!

Per January 2020: Registration time average last 40 entries: 11 hours 20 minutes

CV-Helios Network

- over 38 years in solar amateur astronomy service!

There are now 11395 entries registered containing 181593 CV-observations!

This MPR issued 15th February 2020

CV-Helios Network

Director/Coordinator: Kjell Inge Malde

Phone: +47 98 69 28 56

cvhelios@gmail.com

https://www.cv-helios.net

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Worldwide Amateur Solar Observing Network

Magnetic Sunspot Classifications Zürich/McIntosh system CV - Classification Values (Malde/1981) - numeric system Serving Amateur Solar Astronomy since 1981

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Editorial close: 15.02.2020 17:22 UTC

Page 8 of 10

CV-Helios Network

Volume 40 Number 1

MPR no. 462

January 2020

ISSN 2535-3780

 

 

 

SUNSPOTREGIONS IN THE YEAR 2019

 

 

Region

First date

Z/McI-classifications

 

 

2732

01.01.2019

BXO-DRO-CAO-CAO-BXO-BXO--------

 

2733

22.01.2019

CRO-CRO-DRO-DRI-DSI-DSO-CSO-CSO-CAO-----

 

2734

05.03.2019

CRO-CRO-CAO-HAX-HSX-HSX-AXX-AXX------

 

2735

18.03.2019

BXO-CRO-AXX-AXX----------

 

2736

20.03.2019

DAC-DAC-EKI-EKI-DSO---------

 

2737

31.03.2019

BXO-CRO-CAO-BXO----------

 

2738

07.04.2019

HSX-HHX-CHO-CHO-HHX-CHO-CHO-HHX-HHX-HHX-HHX-HHX-HHX-

2739

17.04.2019

BXO-CRO-BXO-AXX----------

 

2740

03.05.2019

HHX-HHX-DHO-CSO-CSO-CAO-CAO-HAX-HAX-HAX-HAX-AXX--

2741

06.05.2019

HSX-HSX-HSX-HSX-HSX-HSX-HSX-HSX-HSX-HSX-HSX-HAX-HAX-

2742

24.06.2019

AXX-------------

 

 

2743

24.06.2019

AXX-AXX-AXX-AXX----------

 

2744

07.07.2019

BXO-------------

 

 

2745

22.07.2019

AXX-BXO------------

 

 

2746

 

-------------

 

 

2747

06.08.2019

AXX-------------

 

 

2748

01.09.2019

BXO-HSX------------

 

 

2749

01.10.2019

AXX-AXX------------

 

 

2750

01.11.2019

AXX-------------

 

 

2751

02.11.2019

BXO-------------

 

 

2752

 

-------------

 

 

2753

23.12.2019

BXO-BXO-AXX---------

 

 

2754

24.12.2019

BXO-AXX-----------

 

 

 

preliminary listing

22 regions

 

 

 

 

 

 

Page 9 of 10

CV-Helios Network

Volume 40 Number 1

MPR no. 462

January 2020

ISSN 2535-3780

SUNSPOT MINIMUM MAY HAVE OCCURRED

Following closely day-by-day several indices of the very lowest numbers

a very preliminary statement has been made by the author of this bulletin.

There should be an over 80% confidence that solar minimum have occurred. The actual dates varies quite a bit, but may seem the average day of minimum may have been around 2019 December 20.

The fact that we have already experienced some groups from the new cycle 25 should give indications that minimum at least is well underway.

The following are the results trying to find a preliminary minimum date:

CV-6 rot. "0"-days:

19 DEC 2019

max 142 days spotless

=86,6%

CV-13 rot. "0"-days:

21 DEC 2019

max 232 days spotless

=65,5%

CV-I 6 rot:

20 DEC 2019

 

 

CV-I 13 rot.:

20 DEC 2019

 

 

CV-I 1 cycle (10,95 yr.):

21 DEC 2019

 

 

Solar Flux 6 rot. adj.:

22 DEC 2019 or 06 JAN 2020

 

Solar Flux 13 rot. adj.:

24 OCT 2019

 

 

We have also checked the database at sidc for data on Relative numbers

 

in order to receive further indications:

 

 

 

RI-I 6 rot.:

20 DEC 2019

 

 

RI-I 13 rot.:

24 DEC 2019 or 21 JAN 2020

 

RI-I 6 rot. "0"-days:

21 DEC 2019

max 152 days spotless

=92,7%

RI-I 13 rot. "0"-days:

24 DEC 2019

max 268 days spotless

=75,7%

More updates next MPR

CV-Helios Network 2020 Feb 15

Page 10 of 10