HELIOS no. 70 12.Apr. 2003
This Helios Newsletter continues a series newsletters
under the same name as above and that were issued as the newsletter of the Solar Section
of the Norwegian Astronomical Society. Helios no. 1 was issued on 2nd May 1979 and
ended almost simultaneously as I resigned as the leader of that section, i.e. in August
1989. Now I bring it to life again, started where I left it.
Comments? Post them!
Solar Flux 10,7cm Adjusted to 1 AU - vs. - Solar Cycles 20 - 23
Calculated from Adjusted Flux 10,7cm Penticton
Extracts from Preliminary Report and Forecast, SEL,
Boulder, CO. USA:
SWO PRF: Online Weekly in Adobe Acrobat(R) format
JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2003
Activity 01 January 2003 - 31 March 2003 (1st Quarter 2003)
Space Weather Highlights SWO PRF 1427
30 December 2002 - 05 January 2003 07 January 2003
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Activity reached low levels on 02 05 January. The
largest event was a C5.8 flare that occurred at 05 January from Region 243 (S19, L=296, class/area
Dao/200 on 05 January). For flare times and magnitudes, please refer to the Flare List and Energetic
Event List. Region 243 appeared on the visible disk on 03 January, exhibited steady growth, and
increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 242 (S08, L=216,
class/area Dai/190 on 05 January) developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration on 04 January and
produced C-class flares during the period. Region 244 (S23, L=209, class/area Dao/150 on 05
January) has also shown growth and produced isolated C-class activity. The largest event from
Region 244 was a C4 flare on 03 January. All of the other spotted regions on the visible disk during
the summary period were relatively small and had simple magnetic structures.
Space Weather Highlights SWO PRF 1428
06 - 12 January 2003 14 January 2003
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were observed on 07 09 January. The
largest event of the period was an impulsive M4/Sf flare on 08 January from Region 251 (S13, L=125,
class/area Eao/330 on 09 January). For flare times and magnitudes, please refer to the Energetic Event
and Flare List. Region 251 appeared on the visible disk on 07 January, and over the next few days
developed into a moderate sized spot group with a beta gamma magnetic configuration. By 12
January, it became apparent that Region 251 contained two distinct bipoles; consequently, the region
was separated. Region 251 (S14, L=123, class/area Eai/120 on 12 January) remained with the trailing
spots, and Region 255 (S13, L=117, class/area Cko/200 on 12 January) was the new designation for
the leader spots. Region 244 (S23, L=209, class/area Cao/090 on 06 January) produced an M1/1f
flare on 07 January as well as six C-class flares. By the close of the period, Region 244 has decayed to
a small spot group with a simplified beta magnetic configuration. Region 242 (S08, L=219, class/area
Dac/370 on 08 January) was a mildly active beta-gamma region that produced a number of C-class
events and numerous sub-flares throughout the period. On 12 January, Region 242 has shown slight
decay, as it approaches the west limb, and has simplified to a beta magnetic
Space Weather Highlights SWO PRF 1429
13 - 19 January 2003 21 January 2003
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. On 13 17 January, activity was at low levels with the
largest event a C6 flare on the west limb on 14 January from Region 242 (S07, L=218, class/area
Dai/300 on 11 January). For flare times and magnitudes, please refer to the Energetic Events and
Flare List. Region 242 also initiated sympathetic flaring in Region 244 (S23, L=209, class/area
Cao/090 on 06 January) on 13 January, producing a C4 flare. On 14 January, Region 242 and 244
rotated beyond the west limb and on 16 January Region 255 (S13, L=130, class/area Cko/200 on 13
January) produced a C5 flare. The only region to show and increase in area coverage or magnetic
complexity was Region 259 (N10, L=053, class/area Eao/060 on 19 January). However, activity from
this region consisted of only minor plage fluctuations and optical sub-flaring.
Space Weather Highlights SWO PRF 1430
20 - 26 January 2003 28 January 2003
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. The period began at low levels, highlighted by several
minor C-class flares from Region 260 (N14, L=025, class/area Dao/70 on 21 January). Moderate
activity was observed on 21 24 January with three low M-class flares observed in Region 266 (S22,
L=345, class/area Fai/170 on 26 January), the largest being an M2.5/1n on 23 January. This region
also produced an M1/1n flare on 24/0327Z with strong radio bursts including a 12,000 sfu burst on
410 Mhz. Region 266 grew steadily in size and complexity early in the period. On 23 January, it
developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration and maintained this moderate complexity through
the remainder of the period. Regions 269 (S07, L=307, class/area Dso/130 on 25 January) and 260
contributed to the moderate solar activity levels with single minor M-class flares on 21 and 22 January
respectively. For flare times and magnitudes please refer to the Energetic Event and Flare List. The
period ended with low solar activity, highlighted by a C4 flare with moderate centimetric bursts from
Region 268 (N14, L=001, class/area Dao/130 on 26 January).
Space Weather Highlights SWO PRF 1431
26 January - 02 February 2003 04 February 2003
Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels. The period began at low levels, highlighted by a long
duration C2 flare on 27 January associated with a filament eruption from near S19W19. Low levels persisted
through the 29th with just occasional minor C-class flares observed. All active regions on the visible disk
appeared to be stable or in decay, resulting in very low conditions on 30 January. However, the most energetic
event of the period occurred on the 30th when a large filament erupted from the north-central disk and
produced an earthbound coronal mass ejection (CME). We returned to low levels on the 31st with consider-able
activity on the SE limb, indicating that a new active region was rotating onto the visible disk. This new
region was the likely source of minor C-class activity. A prominence was observed erupting off the Northwest
limb late on the 31st, which had an associated Type II radio sweep with a shock velocity of 500 km/s. New
Region 276 (S14, L=161, class/area Eai/240 on 02 February) rotated further into view on 01 Feb and quickly
brought activity levels to moderate, with an M1 flare at 0905 UTC. This region was the dominant source of
activity for the remainder of the period producing several C-class flares, the larges being a C9/Sf late on 01
February. For flare times and magnitudes please refer to the Energetic Event and Flare List.
Space Weather Highlights SWO PRF 1432
03 February - 09 February 2003 11 February 2003
Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels. Very isolated low C-class flares were observed through the
first half of the period, primarily from Regions 276 (S14, L=160, class/area Eai/280 on 04 February), 277 (S21,
L=132, class/area Cro/020 on 08 February) and 278 (N18, L=122, class/area Dao/130 on 08 February). Region
278 rotated onto the visible disk on 04 February producing considerable surging and occasional subflares. This
region eventually raised activity levels to moderate by producing an M1/1n on 06 February, but quickly
transitioned to a decay phase following the event. Activity levels for the remainder of the period were low to
very low with isolated minor C-class flares observed. By the end of the period, several small spot groups with
simple magnetic configurations dominated the visible disk. For flare times and magnitudes, please refer to
Energetic and Optical Flare Lists.
Space Weather Highlights SWO PRF 1433
10 - 16 February 2003 18 February 2003
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. The period began with B-class and minor C-class flares
on 10 11 February. The most significant activity during this time was a long duration C1 on the
west limb that occurred on 10 February at 2124 UTC. An associated CME was not Earth directed. On
12 February, Region 280 (S07, L=149, class/area Dso/40 on 08 February) produced two C-class
flares, the largest was a C8.7 flare at 0151 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (632 km/s)
and minor centimetric radio bursts. LASCO imagery indicated a narrow CME that was not Earth
directed. On 12 13 February, Region 282 (N10, L=128, class/area Dso/50 on 13 February) produced
four C-class events as the region exhibited a two-day growth phase. Moderate levels were observed
on 14 February with a west limb, impulsive M1.2/Sf at 0918 UTC from Region 284 (N13, L=162,
class/area Cso/20 on 09 February). While transiting the west limb Region 284 was also the source of
3 C-class flares. Activity on 15 16 February was at low levels. A long duration C4.5 flare was
observed on 15 February from Region 276 (S14, L=160) on the west limb at 0810 UTC. Associated
with this event was a CME that did not appear to be Earth directed.
Space Weather Highlights SWO PRF 1434
17 - 23 February 2003 25 February 2003
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. The period began with low levels on 17 February and
very low levels on 18 February. Early on 18 February, there was a forty-seven degree filament
eruption off the NW quadrant at 0125 UTC. Activity returned to low levels on 19 22 February.
Region 290 (N17, L=331, class/area/mag. Eki/360/Bg on 21 February) exhibited growth in area size
and increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration during this time. Activity from
Region 290 consisted of numerous B and C-class flares with the largest a C5/Sf flare on 22 February
at 0929 UTC. Region 290 entered a gradual decay phase on 22 February. Activity on 23 February was
at low levels with only minor B-class flare observed.
Space Weather Highlights SWO PRF 1435
24 February - 02 March 2003 04 March 2003
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. The period began with low level activity on 24 February
due to a C1 flare from Region 290 (N17, L=331, class/area Eki/360 on 21 February). Activity
decreased to very low levels on 25 26 February with B-class flares primarily from Region 290. For
the remainder of the period, 27 February 02 March, activity returned to low levels. Region 296
(N12, L=169, class/area Dko/640 on 01 March) was the source of most of the C-class activity on 28
February as it rotated onto the visible disk. On 01 March, Region 297 (S15, L=162, class/area Dso/50
on 02 March) produced the largest event of the period, a C5 flare at 0136 UTC. Region 296 was also
active on 01 March with numerous minor C-class events. At the close of the period, Region 296
developed some mixing polarity in the trailing spots.
Space Weather Highlights SWO PRF 1436
03 - 09 March 2003 11 March 2003
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. The period began with low level activity on 03 March, due to a
long duration C2.4 flare at 2105 UTC from a spotless plage field near S27E72. A partial halo CME associated
with this long duration event was observed in LASCO imagery. Region 296 (N11, L=179, class/area Dki/650
on 04 March) was the largest and most complex region during the period and the source of minor C-class
activity early in the period. This region grew to a moderate size spot group and on 03 March developed a betagamma
magnetic configuration. On 05 March, Region 296 entered a gradual decay phase. Activity was at
very low levels on 04 07 March. Late in the period, Region 306 (N05, L= 76, class/area Dko/540 on 09
March) rotated onto the visible disk and produce low level activity on 08 March. This region exhibited steady
growth through the end of the period and developed a beta magnetic configuration. Region 304 (S11, L-168,
class/area Dao/070 on 09 March) was the source of low level activity on 09 March with four C-class flares.
For flare times and magnitudes please refer to the Energetic Event and Flare lists.
Space Weather Highlights SWO PRF 1437
10 - 16 March 2003 18 March 2003
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. On 10 11 March, activity was at low levels due to activity
from Region 306 (N07, L=080, class/area Dko/640 on 15 March) and Region 304 (S11, L=168, class/area Dao/70
on 09 March). Region 306 developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration on 13 March and has exhibited steady
growth throughout the period. Activity was very low on 12 and 14 March and low levels on 13 March due to a
minor C-flare. A B9.2 X-ray enhancement on 14 March at 1825 UTC was most likely due to a disappearing solar
filament. The western most 30 degrees of a large southwest filament lifted off at 1730 UTC and was associated
with a CME. The most significant region during the period was Region 314 (S14, L=60, class/area Eki/380 on
16 March). This region appeared on the visible disk on 14 March and has been in a rapid growth phase since.
Area coverage has increased to 380 millionths and on 16 March the region developed a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. Activity on 15 and 16 March was at low levels due to C-class flares from Region 314.
The largest event of the period was a C8.4/Sf from Region 314 on 15 March at 2016 UTC. At the time of
this report (18 March) Region 314 continues its rapid growth and has produced two M-class and twp X-class flares.
Space Weather Highlights SWO PRF 1437
17 - 23 March 2003 25 March 2003
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. The most significant region during the period was Region
314 (S14, L=60, class/area/mag. Eki/500/Bgd on 18 March). The region was in a rapid growth phase on 17 18
March and was the source of most of the activity during the period. On 17 and 18 March, Region 314 produced
two X1.5/1b flares, one at 17/1905 UTC and the second at 18/1208 UTC. The X1.5 flare on 18 March was associated
with a Type II (507 km/s) and Type IV radio burst, a ten-centimeter radio burst (1400 sfu), and a full halo CME.
Region 314 also produced two M-class events and numerous C-class events on 18 March. Activity declined to
moderate levels on 19 March with four M-class flares from Region 314, the largest an M3.7/1n at 19/0953 UTC.
Moderate levels persisted through 20 March as Region 314 produced an M1/1f flare. Region 314 entered a slight
decay phase on 19 March and rotated beyond the west limb on 21 March. For the remainder of the period, 21 23
March, activity was at low levels with numerous B-class and minor C-class flare from Region 314.
Space Weather Highlights SWO PRF 1437
24 - 30 March 2003 01 April 2003
Solar activity was very low to low. Low levels were observed on 24 March with B-class and low C-class
activity from Region 321 (N04, L=215, class/area/mag. Eac/370/Bgd on 27 March). Activity decreased to
very low levels on 25 March with just occasional B-class flares from Region 321. The period (26 28 March)
saw a return to low levels with occasional low C-class flares, primarily from Regions 321 and 322 (N19, L=348,
class/area/mag. Hsx/60/A on 27 March). Region 321 developed a weak magnetic delta configuration early on 27
March, but produced only minor activity for the remainder of the period. Regions 318 (S14, L=243, class/area/mag.
Dao/90/B on 29 March) and 323 (S08, L=225, class/area/mag. Dai/230/Bg on 30 March) emerged rapidly on 29 March
and between them, produced several moderate to high C-class flares, including a C8/1f flare from Region 318.
Both regions appeared to mature by 30 March and were responsible for the few small C-class flares observed on
Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the
summary period. The period began in the waning stages of a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind velocity
declined from 650 km/s on 24 March to 375 km/s on 26 March. Solar wind increased on 27 March due to another
small coronal hole high speed stream and reached velocities near 550 km/s. By midday on the 28 March, a transient
flow was detected at ACE with sustained periods of southward Bz in the interplanetary magnetic field. A transition
from transient flow back into a high speed coronal hole stream was observed early on the 30 March. Solar wind
speed went from near 400 km/s (early on the 30th) to near 650 km/s at end the period.
There were no greater than 10 MeV proton events at geo-synchronous orbit during the summary period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels on 24 - 26 March, and again on 28 March.
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The period began on 24 March with quiet to unsettled
levels and one period of isolated active conditions. On 25 26 March, activity decreased to quiet levels. The high
speed stream on 27 and 28 March produced occasional minor storm conditions. The active - occasional minor storm periods
persisted through 29 March as we transitioned into a weak transient flow with extended periods of southward Bz.
Predominantly unsettled to active levels closed out the period, 30 March, with the onset of yet another high speed
Space Weather Outlook
02 28 April 2003
Solar activity is expected to range from very low to low levels. Theres a slight chance of a low M-class flare
during most of the forecast period. Isolated M-class activity is possible from Region 318, 321, and 323 before
they exit the disk (4-6 Apr) and after they return around 18 April. Isolated M-class activity is also possible
from the return of old Region 306 and Region 314 on 02 and 03 April respectively.
No greater than 10 MeV proton events are expected during the forecast period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may reach high levels on 04 06 April, 13 15 April and again on 27 28
April due to returning coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to major storm conditions during the period. Coronal
hole high speed stream effects are expected to produce unsettled to active condition through 04 April. Returning
coronal holes are expected to produce unsettled to isolated minor storm levels on 10 14 April and unsettled to
isolated major storm levels on 23 27 April.
There are 2 New members since 24. Mar. 2002 / Helios 69:
|CV-141||PAMELA A. MERRY||UNITED STATES||22. MAR.03|
Helios no. 71 will be issued 01. Jul. 2003
CV-Helios Network 12 apr 2003