UPDATE (09:05 UTC / 26 August):
(Technical Discussion)
An interplanetary disturbance has arrived. It impacted the Earth's
magnetosphere at roughly 06:55 UTC on 26 August and was associated with a
sudden magnetic impulse observed at ground-based magnetic observatories
measuring 75 nanoteslas (nT).
There is currently some question as to the origin of this particular
disturbance. We are currently leaning slightly toward the idea that this may be
the late arrival of the M9 flare associated coronal mass ejection of 22 August.
For the X-class flare associated disturbance of 24 August to impact the Earth
this early, we would have expected a higher solar wind velocity than we are
currently observing (hovering near 600 km/sec). We have also not yet observed
the passage of any significant mass structures, but instead appear to be
skirting the edge of the disturbance. This is reasonable for the 22 August M9
flare event. Given its poorer trajectory toward the Earth, we may be seeing the
arrival of the edge of the disturbance, which is necessarily less disturbed and
slower-moving.
If this supposition is correct, we may yet see another stronger shock
front impact the Earth sometime over the next 15 hours when the X-class flare
associated coronal mass ejection of 24 August arrives.
Auroral activity is unorganized at the present time, following the first
disturbance at 06:55 UTC. The interplanetary magnetic fields are extremely
variable and are not maintaining a sustained southward orientation long enough
for auroral activity to intensify solidly. We expect auroral activity to be
sporadically active until stronger southward fields appear, at which time
auroral storming may commence. If a second larger disturbance impacts the Earth
within the next 15 hours (by 24:00 UTC on 26 August), major to severe storming
may rapidly follow the arrival of it.
The middle latitude auroral activity warning and low latitude auroral
activity watch remain active and are not being ammended at the present time.

** End of Aurora Update **